6 Aug · 00:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1487
FormLLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Baran
MB
🇵🇱Mateusz Baran
ELO 1542
FormLWWWW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Machelski🌟Machelski covers set handicap as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Baran
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 47% · 2.13· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H1-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)