6 Aug · 00:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1321
FormWWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Golaszewski
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1320
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fabis🌟Fabis covers set handicap as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H32-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.