6 Aug · 01:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1281
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Fabis
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1320
FormWLLLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H11-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.