6 Aug · 02:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1320
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Golaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1301
FormLWLLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~83 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H14-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.