6 Aug · 04:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1475
FormLLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Urban
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1471
FormWWWLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Baron🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (33)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 48% · 2.11· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H54-49
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.