6 Aug · 06:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1487
FormLWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Baran
MB
🇵🇱Mateusz Baran
ELO 1533
FormWLLWL
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Machelski🌟Machelski covers set handicap as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Baran
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 46% · 2.18· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+46
H2H1-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)