6 Aug · 09:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1436
FormLWLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Dabrowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1366
FormLWWWL
58%
42%
🌟Sulkowski goes over total as underdog 75% (24)
Fair odds · Dabrowski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+70
H2H9-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-8)