6 Aug · 09:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇵🇱Dominik Solilo
ELO 1538
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Solilo
JZ
🇵🇱Jakub Zochniak
ELO 1530
FormWLWLW
51%
49%
🌟Zochniak goes over total as underdog 62% (95)
Fair odds · Solilo
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H2-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.