6 Aug · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1422
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Ruszkiewicz
AB
🇵🇱Adrian Burkacki
ELO 1390
FormWLLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Ruszkiewicz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.