6 Aug · 12:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1596
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Poliniewicz
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1626
FormWWLLL
47%
53%
🌟Poliniewicz goes over total as favourite 69% (13)
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H79-102
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.