6 Aug · 18:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MB
🇵🇱Mateusz Baran
ELO 1540
FormWWLLW
65%Win chancemodel fair 1.54Guzik
MG
🇵🇱Michal Guzik
ELO 1682
FormLLLWW
35%
65%
🌟Guzik stays under total as favourite 65% (51)
Fair odds · Guzik
Model 65% · 1.54vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 49%Total ~77 pts
1-3
25%
0-3
24%
2-3
16%
3-1
14%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+142
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+142)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)