6 Aug · 20:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1319
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rolak
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1331
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
🌟Rolak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H14-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.