6 Aug · 19:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1268
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Piecowski
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1278
FormLLLWL
49%
51%
🌟Piecowski goes over total as favourite 73% (22)
Fair odds · Piecowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.94· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.