6 Aug · 22:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1276
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1307
FormWLWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Piecowski🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 90% (21)
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H8-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.