6 Aug · 21:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1324
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Rolak
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1307
FormWLWLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Rolak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H19-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.