7 Aug · 01:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1281
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Rolak
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1314
FormWLLLW
46%
54%
🌟Rolak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H8-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.