7 Aug · 02:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1328
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Golaszewski
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1290
FormLWWWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Piecowski🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 90% (21)
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 31% · 3.21· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~82 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H2-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.