7 Aug · 05:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1452
FormWLWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Stapor
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1530
FormLWLLW
42%
58%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 67% (33)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 70% · 1.42· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~75 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+78
H2H13-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-8)