7 Aug · 06:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1539
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Skotniczny
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1567
FormLWLLW
47%
53%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Skotniczny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.