7 Aug · 06:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇵🇱Dominik Solilo
ELO 1524
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Solilo
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1485
FormLLLLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Solilo
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.