7 Aug · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1447
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1481
FormLLLLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H24-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.