7 Aug · 07:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1539
FormWLLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Lebek
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1464
FormWWLLW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+75
H2H27-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (27-18)