7 Aug · 06:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1525
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stapor
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1534
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 67% (33)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H12-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.