7 Aug · 06:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1651
FormWWWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Tkaczyk
ML
🇵🇱Miroslaw Lewczuk
ELO 1565
FormWWLLW
59%
41%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 71% (45)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+86
H2H33-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (33-11)