7 Aug · 08:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1452
FormWLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Minda
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1516
FormLLWLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 67% · 1.49· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H18-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-11)