7 Aug · 08:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1359
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kotyl
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1377
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Kotyl
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.04· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H12-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.