7 Aug · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PP
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1592
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Polok
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1555
FormWWWLL
54%
46%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Polok
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.