7 Aug · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1518
FormWWLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Gumulinski
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1596
FormLLWLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~80 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+78
H2H111-48
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (111-48)