7 Aug · 11:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1503
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Schaniel
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1527
FormWWWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.