7 Aug · 10:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1461
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vincenec
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1475
FormWWLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Paszkiewicz🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 92% (13)
Fair odds · Vincenec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.