7 Aug · 10:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Marcin Balcerzak
ELO 1616
FormWLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Balcerzak
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1538
FormLWWWL
59%
41%
🌟Balcerzak goes over total as favourite 75% (16)
Fair odds · Balcerzak
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+78
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)