7 Aug · 10:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1376
FormWLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Dabrowski
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1442
FormLWLLW
43%
57%
🌟Sulkowski goes over total as underdog 75% (24)
Fair odds · Dabrowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+66
H2H10-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-8)