7 Aug · 10:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1532
FormWWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Minda
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1485
FormWLWLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 47% · 2.15· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H64-68
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)