7 Aug · 09:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1316
FormLLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Warpas
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1374
FormWWWLL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)