7 Aug · 12:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1508
FormWWWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Krupa
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1430
FormWWLWW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Krupa
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 57% · 1.75· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+78
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)