7 Aug · 11:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1492
FormWWLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lilien
AM
🇵🇱Adrian Myszewski
ELO 1432
FormLWLWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~81 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H19-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-16)