7 Aug · 11:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇵🇱Marcin Balcerzak
ELO 1622
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Poliniewicz
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1636
FormWLWWW
49%
51%
🌟Poliniewicz goes over total as favourite 69% (13)
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H82-48
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.