7 Aug · 16:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1504
FormWLWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Lilien
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1433
FormWLLLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+71
H2H24-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-13)