7 Aug · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1308
FormLWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Golaszewski
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1343
FormWWLWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fabis🌟Fabis covers set handicap as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 48% · 2.10· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~81 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H33-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.