7 Aug · 18:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1309
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wisniewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1329
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H66-53
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.