7 Aug · 20:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JO
🇵🇱Jan Orszulik
ELO 1477
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Orszulik
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1439
FormWWWWL
54%
46%
🌟Ruszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 66% (32)
Fair odds · Orszulik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H0-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.