7 Aug · 21:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1361
FormLLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Skorski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1334
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H48-50
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.