7 Aug · 21:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1667
FormWWLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Oracz
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krutak
ELO 1606
FormLLWWW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krutak🌟Krutak covers set handicap as underdog 69% (16)
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+61
H2H11-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-7)