7 Aug · 20:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1322
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fabis
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1316
FormWWWLL
51%
49%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H58-58
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.