7 Aug · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1632
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pawlik
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krutak
ELO 1600
FormLLLWW
53%
47%
🌟Krutak covers set handicap as underdog 69% (16)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H6-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.