7 Aug · 22:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1450
FormWWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Ruszkiewicz
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1388
FormWLWLL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Ruszkiewicz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+62
H2H23-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-11)