8 Aug · 01:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RW
🇵🇱Roman Wiza
ELO 1334
FormLLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Fira
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1375
FormLLWLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Fira
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+41
H2H49-47
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+41)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (49-47)