8 Aug · 01:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1389
FormWLWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Trela
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1318
FormWLWWL
58%
42%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 52% · 1.92· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~81 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+71
H2H54-49
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (54-49)