8 Aug · 03:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RW
🇵🇱Roman Wiza
ELO 1322
FormLLLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Wiza
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalski
ELO 1272
FormLWLWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Wiza
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H86-67
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (86-67)