8 Aug · 04:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1633
FormLLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Oracz
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1685
FormWWWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+52
H2H28-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-25)